This off-season was primed to be a big one for the MLB with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper both becoming free agents in 2019. Both had people talking about the potential of the biggest contract in MLB history. With rumors flaring all off-season it is now almost February and we have seen neither sign, and we have not even seen an official offer put on the table for either. It is not just those two names out there though, here is the top 10 names remaining.
1.Bryce Harper
He is arguably the best player in the game right now, and on the free agent market. Not something teams get to see every year. In 2018 he had the second lowest batting average of his career batting .249. Even with the low average Harper nearly had an On Base Percentage of .400 sitting right at .393 and still hit 34 homeruns and had 100 runs batted in. Harper has been an All-Star in every year since he entered the league in 2012 except 2014 when he sat out 62 games with an injury. He was still able to help lead the Nationals to the postseason in 2014 when he hit 3 home runs in 4 games. No matter where Harper signs, he will be the best player on the team, and make any team an instant contender to win their division.
Harper’s career stats- .279 AVG 183 doubles 18 triples 184 homeruns 521 RBI .388 OBP
With these types of numbers from a guy like this that brings so much energy to a team we could see the biggest contract in baseball history. Right now it is just a matter of when, and who. I think the most likely landing spot for Harper will be the Philadelphia Phillies. They have a good young core, and money to spend to build around them. I expect to see the contract end up around 10 years/333 mil.
2. Manny Machado
Where can you start with this guy? He is the definition of a 5- Tool player. He can do anything, and probably play anywhere. However he has decided to limit himself and announced he is only looking to play shortstop and would be willing to play third in the right situation. The good thing about signing Machado is your biggest worry won’t be his play, it’s his attitude and some remarks that were made during the 2018 World Series. He stated he wasn’t Johnny hustle and it just wasn’t who he was. Which was proven to be true a ball he hit off the right field wall he decided to pimp during the World Series that ended up being just a long single. That can be fixed though and that’s the beautiful thing about baseball is he will have so many more opportunities to make up for that mistake, and his choice for words in that situation.
Machado had quite a year in 2018 despite the antics and being traded across the country. In Baltimore before being traded to LA in just 96 games hit 24 homeruns and was batting .315. After the trade he helped lead the Dodgers win the NL West, NLDS, NLCS, and another WS appearance. All things he can now add to his resume this off-season.
Machado’s career stats- .282 AVG 211 doubles 12 triples 175 homeruns 513 RBI .335 OBP
Despite the drama, the rumors, the meetings, and speculation Machado is due for a big deal sometime in the next month. It’s hard to tell where he’s going because the whole Machado camp has been very mysterious about where he will end up. However, if I had to guess I think with all the attempts at signing friends, family, and anyone close to Machado it is clear the White Sox are going all in for Machado. I expect them to reach an 8 year/295 million-dollar deal with a player opt out after 4 years. The opt out after 4 would give Machado an opportunity to explore free agency again at only the age of 30.
3. Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel, statistically is one of best pitchers of all time. However, 2018 statistically was one of the worst years for Kimbrel. He struggled with control, and his velocity was down just a notch. He also had 5 blown saves which was the most since his rookie year. The postseason was so rough that Cora had to go with is ace Chris Sale to close out the clinching game of the series. In the 2018 regular season Kimbrel pitched 62.1 IP with a 2.74 ERA 0.99 WHIP 96 SO 31 BB and 42 Saves. Which of course for any other pitcher may be considered a good year, but for him this was most definitely a down year.
He may not have had the best years in his career, but that doesn’t change the fact he has been one of the most dominant pitchers over the last 6-8 years. So of course right now his agent is out selling him as the best pitcher/closer in baseball. Only problem is no one is buying it.
Kimbrel career stats- 542 Games 532.2 IP 285 Hits 122 Runs 113 Earned Runs 1.91 ERA 0.92 WHIP 868 Strike outs
I could see Kimbrel reuniting with the team it all started for him with, the Atlanta Braves. The only question will be, will the Braves be willing to spend that much money? They definitely should be considering how much more competitive the NL East has gotten this off-season. As well as the bullpen being the Braves biggest weakness. However, you can never count out the Red Sox in the bidding war. The defending champs with already the highest payroll in baseball are without a closer right now if they can’t bring back Kimbrel. I expect Kimbrel to get around 6 year/90 million-dollar deal. It is most definitely deserved, but if he will get it is a whole other question.
4. Marwin Gonzalez
This guy is your ideal utility player. He can literally play anywhere pretty much. He’s in his prime with postseason and World Series experience. His one ring came in 2017 with the Houston Astros where he has spent his entire career to this point. The best year of his career came in 2017 when he batted .303 with 23 homeruns and 90 RBI’s. All career highs for Gonzalez. In 2018 we saw a pretty big drop off though. Getting the most opportunity of his career he did not take full advantage. His average dropped below .250 down to .247, only hit 16 homeruns, and had 22 less RBI’s.
Gonzalez career stats- .264 AVG 139 Doubles 8 Triples 76 Homeruns 292 RBI .318 OBP
Marwin Gonzalez played every position on the diamond but catcher in 2018. He brings so much to the table no matter where he ends up. He is one of the most valuable assets on the market and any team would be happy to have him. The problem is we don’t know how much he has been asking for, and the fact we are a month away from Spring Training and he still has not signed tells me he is asking for a bit too much. I expect him to settle in and take a 2-year deal around 22 million to stay in the division he has played in his whole career and sign with the Angels. They are in need of a middle infielder and someone to play first when Pujols is at DH.
5. Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel, like Gonzalez has played for the Astros his entire career. The winner of the 2015 Cy Young award had a down year in 2018 and will be looking to bounce back in 2019. Where that will be is to be determined. Keuchel has drawn interest from many teams this off season and has yet to strike up a deal. With the top free agent starting pitchers like JA Happ and Patrick Corbin off the market Keuchel is surely the next one to go. In 2018 Keuchel posted a 3.74 ERA and had 153 strikeouts, the second most of his career. Keuchel will be nearing 1,000 strikeouts in 2019 in just his 7th season in the league.
Keuchel career stats- 192 Games 183 Starts 12 Complete Games 4 Shutouts 1189.1 IP 1144 Hits 521 Runs 484 Earned Runs 343 BB 945 SO 3.66 ERA 1.25 WHIP
It is clear that Keuchel is the best starting pitcher available, and he will be a great veteran presence in the locker room and rotation. Keuchel will most likely sign a 3 or 4 year deal with a team/player option after 2 and 3 years. The Phillies missed out on Patrick Corbin earlier this off-season when he signed with the Nationals, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a late push for him. I think there is still a strong possibility resigns with the Astros, that’s where he has spent his entire career and won a ring in 2017.
6. Mike Moustakas
Moose, 30 years old is not getting nearly enough attention for what he can bring to a team. A season ago he was traded from Kansas City to Milwaukee where he batted .251, with 28 homeruns, and 95 RBIs. He also won a ring in 2015 with Kansas City. In 2018 Moose had a fielding percentage of .966 showing no sign of a decline in the field.
Moustakas career stats- .251 AVG 196 Doubles 5 Triples 147 Homeruns 474 RBI .307 OBP
Moose has flown under the radar most of this off-season because all the big names in front of him. He is expected to meet with Padres soon where Eric Hosmer his former Royals teammate signed last off-season. The Padres have shown they want to contend more next year and not just be a bottom of the barrel team. This would be a move that could help pick that team up off the floor. I would expect him to sign a 2 year/16-million dollar deal.
7. Josh Harrison
The 2 time All-Star like Moose has been very overlooked this offseason. He is an above average utility player that can play the corners in the infield and outfield, and play second base. With a near .300 career average Harrison is rare player that is able to do both, and do them well. Harrison who dealt with injuries a year ago still batted .250 with a .293 OBP in just 97 games.
Harrison career stats- .277 AVG 154 Doubles 27 Triples 52 Homeruns 269 RBI .317 OBP
The 31-year old is still exploring free agency, yet to find a home. For him he could sign anywhere because he can do so many things. I think the Milwaukee Brewers would be the best fit for both parties. The Brewers look to defend their NL Central title, and it’s a division Harrison is very familiar with as he played 7 years with the Pirates. I would expect a one-year deal at this point in free agency most likely looking at 1 year/7 million.
8. Adam Jones
Adam Jones may be 33 years old but by no means has he showed any sign of a decline. He hasn’t played on a playoff team since 2016, but that hasn’t been because of his play. In 2018 when the Baltimore Orioles were the worst team in the MLB Jones batted .281 hit 15 homeruns and had 63 RBI’s. He also had a career low in strikeouts. He also had the most stolen bases he’s had in 5 years (7).
Jones career stats- .278 AVG 311 Doubles 28 Triples 266 Homeruns 878 RBI .318 OBP
Jones may not be in the prime of his career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t help a team win. At the very least I would expect him to get a job as a 4th outfielder for a contending team. He’s a capable outfielder and above average hitter still. I expect him to sign a 1 year/6 million-dollar deal with the Colorado Rockies.
9. Gio Gonzalez
Yes, Gonzalez’s best years are most certainly behind him. However, he is veteran pitcher who can eat up innings at the back end of a rotation. He may not be the best starting pitcher in free agency, but he would be a cheap reliable option. In his last appearance of 2018 in the NLCS with the Milwaukee Brewers he suffered a high ankle sprain.
After being traded to Milwaukee in 5 starts Gonzalez posted a 2.13 ERA with 22 strikeouts. He didn’t do quite as hot to start the season with the Nationals however he had just a 4.21 ERA with 126 strikeouts in 145.2 innings.
Gonzalez career stats- 313 Games 307 Starts 4 Complete Games 1814 Innings Pitched 1628 Hits 802 Runs 744 Earned Runs 759 BB 1748 SO 3.69 ERA 1.32 WHIP
While being on the decline Gonzalez proved he can help a ball club in crunch time. A team in need of a veteran SP will take advantage of this guy. He will be cheap and that’s what makes me think the Red’s might make a run at him. They have been very active this off season and willing to make moves. I expect him to take one year/4.5 million-dollar deal.
10. Jose Iglesias
Jose Iglesias, 29 years has played for the Tigers since being traded from Boston in 2013. He has is a contact bat that gets on base at a good rate. Iglesias isn’t a complete utility player, but he can play just about anywhere in the infield when necessary. He has played a majority of his career at shortstop. That may be why he has not been signed not many teams are looking for an average 29-year old shortstop with no power.
Iglesias career stats- .270 AVG 125 Doubles 9 Triples 21 Homeruns 188 RBI .315 OBP
With the Pirates most likely losing Harrison to free agency I could see them making a legit offer for Iglesias. A guy that can play multiple positions in the infield, and hits for contact well. I expect Iglesias to get a 2-year deal being that he is only 29 looking around a 2 year/12 million- dollar deal.
What looked like was going to be a huge offseason for free agency still has a lot left for there to be less than a month before the first spring training game. When will Harper and Machado go? Where will they go? And what I am most excited for is how much are they about to be paid? All answers we can expect to be answered sometime in the next month.
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