Alex Pitman
So, after staring at your bracket for a few hours now, you still can’t figure out which 11 seed to take to the sweet 16 or how you ended up with four number 1 seeds in your Final Four. That’s why I’m here to help. Now, full disclaimer I am not a professional basketball analyst or some Vegas odds maker, but I do have about 19 years of March Madness experience with multiple ESPN Tournament Challenge wins under my belt. Follow these simple rules and you’re guaranteed to beat Ron from accounting this year.
Experience Matters
As fun as it is to watch these freshman phenoms dominate the hardwood, youth rarely translates to postseason success. In the last ten years, only two teams that were primarily led by Freshman (‘12 Kentucky, ’15 Duke) won the Big Dance. So, despite all the hype, young freshman rarely get the job done. This years Duke squad could definitely be an exception to my rule, but don’t be surprised if Duke gets bounced before the championship game. It’s no slight on the young guys, they’re so much fun to watch, but there’s just something about the craziness of March that makes me want to have some experience out there.
Defense is Overrated
I am a huge sucker for defense. I know I’m in the minority but I love watching one team suffocate another for 40 minutes. Unfortunately, however, the saying “defense wins championships” does not apply much to college basketball. While you have to have a good defense, offense controls the flow of games more often than not. UNC won their last two championships while having a defense outside of the top 10. As important as defenses are, we’ve all seen teams get hot and won’t miss shots in the tournament which completely offsets a great defense. That being said, you can’t have an atrocious defense. Take Lonzo Ball’s UCLA team for example, they had the top offense in the country but the 85th best defense. So, defense is important, but overrated.
Choose Offense Over Defense
This one piggy backs off of the last point. Things get crazy and defenses breakdown once March comes around. I’d rather take the better offense when chaos ensues. The stats back this up as well. Eight of the last 11 national champions have finished with a top-five offense. You have to be able to put the ball in the basket to stay in the Dance.
Guard Play is Essential
If you want your team to go far in the tournament, you better have a good point guard. It is the most important position on the floor in postseason for many reasons. One, they control the pace of play. Some teams have to play fast while others need to play in slow, half-court sets. Your PG is the one who will put your team in that pace. Secondly, turnovers are killer in March Madness. It’s how so many underdogs pull of upsets and so many comebacks are possible. If you don’t have a reliable lead guard, then you’re going to be in trouble. Here is a list of PGs from past champions: Mario Chalmers, Ty Lawson, Kemba Walker, Marquis Teague, Peyton Siva, Shabazz Napier, Jalen Brunson, and Joel Berry. So, yeah, they’re pretty important.
Don’t Ride Your Favorite Team
This is one of the hardest rules to follow. Everybody loves to forget about their favorite teams flaws and take them deep into the tournament. As a Tennessee fan, this year is especially hard for me. You have to fight against this urge. Your judgement is impaired because of your bias. Your team is not actually that good. The other teams in the rest of the bracket are much better than you’re giving them credit for. Also, if your team does go far then you’re going to be so excited that you’ll forget about your bracket. On the other hand, if you were honest about your team, you’ll be happy that you were correct on your bracket. So, whatever you do, be honest about your favorite team.
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